As we enter the second half of 2025, the markets are showing remarkable resilience. Despite geopolitical tensions, tariff shocks, and rate policy uncertainty, the S&P 500 and other major indexes have rebounded to all-time highs.
📈 Inflation sits at a manageable 2.35%, well below the 2022 peak of 9.1%, and we're projecting a range of 2.5% to 3%—right in line with historical norms. This gives us confidence that inflation is under control, even with the recent one-time tariff bump.
💼 Corporate earnings remain strong, up 7.75% over the past 12 months, providing a solid foundation for continued equity strength.
💰 Interest rates are still range-bound. While a Fed rate cut is possible later this year, uncertainty around trade policy makes it hard to call. Still, the bond market has remained stable.
🌍 In Q2, markets weathered major events: Liberation Day tariffs, and a U.S.-Israel strike on Iran. While volatility spiked, we saw a sharp V-shaped recovery—fueled by strong fundamentals and investor confidence.
🔮 Looking ahead, we remain bullish on equities. We don’t foresee a recession in 2025, and we expect trade clarity in the coming months to support market sentiment. Fixed income may underperform, but still plays a key role in diversified portfolios.
✅ The takeaway? Stay invested. Stay diversified. And don’t let headlines derail your long-term strategy.